{"id":130,"date":"2026-07-18T13:28:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T13:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/manreligion.org\/?page_id=130"},"modified":"2026-07-18T14:14:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T14:14:18","slug":"bayesian-evidence-assessment","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/manreligion.org\/?page_id=130","title":{"rendered":"Bayesian Evidence Assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-categories-list wp-block-categories-taxonomy-category wp-block-categories\">\t<li class=\"cat-item cat-item-1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/manreligion.org\/?cat=1\">Uncategorized<\/a>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n        <div class=\"bec-wrap\" data-bec>\n            <div class=\"bec-header\">\n                <h2>Bayesian Evidence Calculator<\/h2>\n                <p>\n                    Compare <strong>H1: inscription predates 1958<\/strong> against\n                    <strong>H2: the entire modern-fabrication family<\/strong>.\n                <\/p>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-hypotheses\">\n                <div>\n                    <label>H1<\/label>\n                    <textarea class=\"bec-hypothesis\" rows=\"3\">The inscription was created before 1958. This includes earlier monastic or other pre-1958 inscription scenarios and does not by itself prove Clementine authorship.<\/textarea>\n                <\/div>\n                <div>\n                    <label>H2<\/label>\n                    <textarea class=\"bec-hypothesis\" rows=\"3\">The inscription was fabricated and planted in the modern period. H2 includes the entire disjunctive family: solo fabrication, collaborators, divided labor, specialist Greek assistance, calligraphic assistance, and access to old materials.<\/textarea>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-prior\">\n                <label for=\"bec-prior-odds\">Prior odds for H1 : H2<\/label>\n                <div class=\"bec-ratio-input\">\n                    <input id=\"bec-prior-h1\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"1\" aria-label=\"Prior odds H1\">\n                    <span>:<\/span>\n                    <input id=\"bec-prior-h2\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"1\" aria-label=\"Prior odds H2\">\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-table-wrap\">\n                <table class=\"bec-table\">\n                    <thead>\n                        <tr>\n                            <th>Evidence<\/th>\n                            <th>Likelihood ratio<br><small>P(E|H1) \u00f7 P(E|H2)<\/small><\/th>\n                            <th>Interpretation \/ notes<\/th>\n                            <th><\/th>\n                        <\/tr>\n                    <\/thead>\n                    <tbody id=\"bec-evidence-body\">\n                                                <tr class=\"bec-evidence-row\">\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-label\" type=\"text\" value=\"Clementine Greek and conceptual fit\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-lr\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"10\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <textarea class=\"bec-notes\" rows=\"3\">Evidence favoring H1. Fold overlapping theology and Mark-use arguments into this row to reduce double-counting.<\/textarea>\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-remove\" aria-label=\"Remove evidence row\">\u00d7<\/button>\n                            <\/td>\n                        <\/tr>\n                                                <tr class=\"bec-evidence-row\">\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-label\" type=\"text\" value=\"Epistolary form\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-lr\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"1\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <textarea class=\"bec-notes\" rows=\"3\">Neutral unless a specific, independently justified likelihood ratio is supplied.<\/textarea>\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-remove\" aria-label=\"Remove evidence row\">\u00d7<\/button>\n                            <\/td>\n                        <\/tr>\n                                                <tr class=\"bec-evidence-row\">\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-label\" type=\"text\" value=\"Seventeenth-century handwriting and material presentation\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-lr\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"10\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <textarea class=\"bec-notes\" rows=\"3\">Evidence favoring H1. Ink, paper, handwriting, and related material observations should remain grouped here.<\/textarea>\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-remove\" aria-label=\"Remove evidence row\">\u00d7<\/button>\n                            <\/td>\n                        <\/tr>\n                                                <tr class=\"bec-evidence-row\">\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-label\" type=\"text\" value=\"Provenance and discovery circumstances\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <input class=\"bec-lr\" type=\"number\" min=\"0.000001\" step=\"any\" value=\"3\">\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <textarea class=\"bec-notes\" rows=\"3\">Evidence favoring H1.<\/textarea>\n                            <\/td>\n                            <td>\n                                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-remove\" aria-label=\"Remove evidence row\">\u00d7<\/button>\n                            <\/td>\n                        <\/tr>\n                                            <\/tbody>\n                <\/table>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-controls\">\n                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-button\" id=\"bec-add-row\">Add evidence row<\/button>\n                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-button bec-secondary\" id=\"bec-reset\">Reset defaults<\/button>\n                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-button bec-secondary\" id=\"bec-print\">Print \/ Save PDF<\/button>\n                <button type=\"button\" class=\"bec-button bec-secondary\" id=\"bec-export\">Export CSV<\/button>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-results\">\n                <div class=\"bec-result-card\">\n                    <span class=\"bec-result-label\">Combined Bayes factor<\/span>\n                    <strong id=\"bec-bayes-factor\">\u2014<\/strong>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"bec-result-card\">\n                    <span class=\"bec-result-label\">Posterior odds H1 : H2<\/span>\n                    <strong id=\"bec-posterior-odds\">\u2014<\/strong>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"bec-result-card\">\n                    <span class=\"bec-result-label\">Posterior probability of H1<\/span>\n                    <strong id=\"bec-h1-probability\">\u2014<\/strong>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"bec-result-card\">\n                    <span class=\"bec-result-label\">Posterior probability of H2<\/span>\n                    <strong id=\"bec-h2-probability\">\u2014<\/strong>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-warning\">\n                <strong>Important:<\/strong>\n                Multiplying likelihood ratios assumes the evidence rows are sufficiently independent.\n                Combine overlapping observations into one row rather than counting the same underlying evidence more than once.\n            <\/div>\n\n            <div class=\"bec-method\">\n                <h3>Calculation<\/h3>\n                <p>\n                    Posterior odds = prior odds \u00d7 likelihood ratio 1 \u00d7 likelihood ratio 2 \u00d7 \u2026\n                <\/p>\n                <p>\n                    A likelihood ratio above 1 favors H1; below 1 favors H2; exactly 1 is neutral.\n                <\/p>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-130","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - 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