Bayesian Evidence Assessment

Bayesian Evidence Calculator

Compare H1: inscription predates 1958 against H2: the entire modern-fabrication family.

Prior odds for H1 : H2

Evidence	Likelihood ratio P(E\|H1) ÷ P(E\|H2)	Interpretation / notes
		Evidence favoring H1. Fold overlapping theology and Mark-use arguments into this row to reduce double-counting.
		Neutral unless a specific, independently justified likelihood ratio is supplied.
		Evidence favoring H1. Ink, paper, handwriting, and related material observations should remain grouped here.
		Evidence favoring H1.

Combined Bayes factor —

Posterior odds H1 : H2 —

Posterior probability of H1 —

Posterior probability of H2 —

Important: Multiplying likelihood ratios assumes the evidence rows are sufficiently independent. Combine overlapping observations into one row rather than counting the same underlying evidence more than once.

Calculation

Posterior odds = prior odds × likelihood ratio 1 × likelihood ratio 2 × …

A likelihood ratio above 1 favors H1; below 1 favors H2; exactly 1 is neutral.